Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
